Originally published on: African Futures
Co-authored Article:
At the time of this writing, the latest casualty in President Donald Trump’s administrative overhaul appears to be America’s flagship soft power initiative—the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The agency’s website went dark on 1 February 2025, leaving thousands of staff in limbo and crucial programs frozen.
Among thousands of other initiatives that risk being affected, the Young African Leaders Initiative (YALI), a cornerstone of US-Africa engagement with young people, faces an uncertain future. The US$80 million programme, managed by Arizona State University, has been instrumental in cultivating the next generation of African leadership by fostering an understanding of Africa-US partnership through localisation efforts across the continent.
The shutdown contrasts sharply with the commitments of previous US administrations. At the December 2022 US-Africa Leaders Summit, then-Vice President Kamala Harris pledged US$100 million to expand YALI’s reach. Now, that vision of continued partnership appears increasingly remote as Trump’s administration dismantles one of America’s primary soft power diplomacy tools.
The new administration’s radical disruption would create another vacuum in US-Africa educational and cultural diplomacy at a time when Africa’s youthful population is becoming a significant geopolitical force. Europe, the US, Russia and China are all investing in various programs to court and influence their views. These powers recognise the key role that Africa’s young people will play in shaping the future of international economics and geopolitics, highlighting the importance of engaging their leaders.
In the next seven years, 20% of the total 8.55 billion global population will be African. Further, by 2030, 42% of the world’s youth and 75% of those under 35 will be in Africa. With 20 million new job seekers entering the market annually, Africa’s workforce faces immense pressure. Economic migration theory, supported by studies of the Philippines and Mexico, shows that surplus labour and scarce job opportunities drive both internal and external migration. However, workforce mobility can ease local unemployment and raise wages for those who remain. While migration may improve living standards, its primary drivers remain the urgent need for jobs and the gap between labour supply and demand.
Africa’s youthful population is becoming a significant geopolitical force.
To realise a demographic dividend, African economies must achieve massive productivity increases. According to ISS projections, this potential dividend depends on two key factors:
First, the expanding workforce must have access to quality education, relevant skills development and adequate healthcare to boost economic productivity.
Second, the demographic window of opportunity—when the ratio of working-age people to dependants reaches 1.7 to 1—will only begin around 2054, underlining the need for increased female education and empowerment to bring that date forward.
Achieving the projected demographic changes and fostering job creation heavily relies on leadership with determination and effective governance. Failing to invest in leadership development now could turn Africa’s demographic advantage into a crisis.
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